UFC 249 Fan Picks: Ferguson vs Gaethje with Ryan Bagnal

We breakdown and give our picks for the card top to bottom for UFC 249.


Ryan Bagnal: I mean how excited to you for tonight dude. I am so happy fights at bat. I mean granted like it is very interesting with the late-breaking news last night, a Jacare, I’m interested to see how this changes things put man, I’m so glad that fights are back and this card specifically Wow yeah. It’S it’s crazy man like even to think about it. Like they pulled that fight and I’m like [ __ ] man, that’s a good fight, but then I was like that was on the prelims like it’s not like. Yeah, Paul and Jacare should never be on the prelims, but that’s how stacked this card is top to bottom. It’S. It’S actually crazy, how stacked it is so even losing that fight. It’S still one of the most stacked cards we’ve seen a long time I mean, even if you think, about Amanda, Nunez and Felicia Spencer, originally being on and that being removed. It’S still a stat card, yeah, two title fights and gommi Rose and strike Stevens cater Hardee’s on the card, Cerrone and Pettis closing out the prelims like it’s crazy. I love it though it’s they would definitely went big for it for the first fight back. So we’ll start man with the predictions. What are your thoughts? I guess we’ll start at the bottom work our way up and you go from there. First, one is a Ryan span and Sam Alvey, I think it’s fair to say everyone’s going for span and everyone thinks spans gon na win. What’S what’s your prediction there and how do you think? How do you think he wins? I think easiest choice of the night. I think Ryan’s span steamrolls him Sam Alvey, though he is a tough guy so like I would be intrigued if it happened in the first round, but I think early second round at the absolute latest, TKO ko Ryan spans a monster he’s on a huge fight, win Streak like, if you think I think, he’s won seven in a row and nothing that gets democrat, but I mean he even submitted Devin Clark. He’S got he’s, got three submissions to to knock out three submissions: three knockouts in his last seven fights with only one decision. He’S finished Sam I’ll, be somehow Sam. On the other side, though, he’s only won three of his last seven he’s on a three fight losing streak. I think he’s he’s in a weird position where he doesn’t know whether to be light heavyweight, whether to be middleweight. Like he’s kind of bounced around based on 185 weight issues, I think he’s too small for one night 205. It’S interesting, but Ryan’s ban finishes them yeah. I have it the same way: I’ve Ryan spam via TKO. In the second round. I don’t think even though he submitted Devin Clark like he said, Sam Alvey hasn’t been submitted in 10 years, so I think it’s unlikely he gets submitted. I think it’s too experienced to get submitted, but I think he get that gets finished. I think he got tko’ed and two of his last three fights so yeah span second round. I think, like he said easiest easiest pic of the night. Then we have Charles Rosa Bryce Mitchell, featherweight division. I think I love this fight. I like I like both guys. A lot I’m a huge fan of Charles Rosa because of what he does outside of fighting with Chuck DS fight in the organization. I like his story, how he doctors told when he couldn’t fight fought through it, came back and won in Boston. It’S hard not to root for him. That being said, I love Bryce Mitchell, so hate it when two guys I like fight each other. This is this: is a good fight? What’S uh, what’s your what’s your pick on it? This is a really tough fight, because Charles and Rosa has had some Wars, whether it’s the kind of Sivir fight. I mean even look at how well he did it gives ya ear, but to a split, I think, right, yeah yeah, and so, when you think about level of competition, I think that Charles Rosa has the advantage. Bryce Mitchell is an interesting cat and he definitely, I think, plays a little into his like country, boy persona, but with that said, I think Bryce Mitchell gets it done. I don’t. I don’t think it’s a finish. I think it is a close fight, but I think he squeaks out the decision, split decision, majority decision, some type of close fight, all wait till the end, but this will be one of the three fights we talk about tomorrow. I have that yeah. I have this one as well. I wrote notes on all of them. I said, like you said roses: only losses really have been yeah year, Burgos and deceiver earlier on in his UFC career. So those three losses, no shame in any of those and they all went to decision. He hasn’t been finished. So I do think that Bryce Mitchell has the tools to win, but not finish them. He obviously had an impressive submission, his last fight, but he wasn’t fighting a guy like Charles Rosa, so I have it similar. I think three rounds to two or sorry two rounds to one for for Bryce, but Bryce Mitchell. I think, gets it done now. Now three lumps on ESPN, we start off with Bangor. I think this is a close second, maybe for fight of the night, favorite Vicente Luque Nico price round two. They fought the first nine. The first one ended in a submission for for Luke a do you think this one plays out similarly, or do you think it’s because a lot better than he once was man? I will tell you single-handedly. This is probably the toughest fight to pick. The first fight was an absolute war. Nico was undefeated going into it. They said they hit him with a slick, Darce joke. Oh my gosh, I don’t I hate to say it. I think the Cente Luke eight wins. I don’t think it’s a finish. I think it’s an all-out another war so like. I think this is the second of three fights that we will talk about tomorrow, where it was just put on for the show for the fans. I think that Vicente squeaks out a win just because Nico can’t finish him, because Vicente chin is ridiculous and I think that that will allow him to keep working and win the fight. Yeah I mean I, I love Niko price and I’m find myself rooting for him. I want him to win. I wanted to to propel himself there into the top 15 because I think there’s a lot of exciting fights for him once he gets in there, but I think Luke is level of competition. I mean he fought Wonder Boy, Wonder Boy. Couldn’T finish him, Nico prices level of competition hasn’t been as strong as Luke A’s and even though he looked impressive against Vic Vic’s chin hasn’t been holding up. So I don’t think Lucas chin is gon na fold like Vic stood, and for that reason I have I have Luke eight winning, but I think Luke a actually gets. It done. I think Luke a and him are gon na Luke, a in price you’re gon na start swinging until some think it’s gon na be Nico. Let’S hope that’s what happens and then the next one was supposed to be Hall versus Sousa. Obviously, that card that fight is off, but how did you have that going, and so I do read the tone that goes into it and so prior to the fight. So it’s interesting that Jack are actually tested positive. I didn’t think you would test positive, but there were some reports that he was concerned about like his family members prior to it, and so – and I know that it didn’t really seem like Jack – very wanted to fight he’d more had to fight and so prior to The fight I did have Uriah winning on some crazy Uriah Hall catches. You in a weird moment type finish moment all right. You know I will say if these guys were to fight in the future. I would actually probably flip my vote backer a just because Jacare had knows, given the circumstances that he has to win at this point. I’Ve met your AIA Hall quite a few times. To be honest, one of the nicest guys ever first uh-oh, I’m gon na, say picky right. I love you, I ha luckily fights and everything, but I I was I mean I didn’t look into it. I didn’t know that you know his family members. He was worried about his family members and he felt the fight was forced on him, but I just feel like uh, you know, even though he’s coming off a to fight losing streak he’s you know Uriah, he barely beat Antonio Carlos jr., and I just think Jacques Raised on another level compared to those two aside from the fact he’s a fourth degree, black belt, his hands are really really good. His only losses have been to the elites in the middleweight division, so I was, I’ve had a curry winning, but I didn’t think he was gon na finish him. I just thought it was gon na be a comfortable decision, especially given the fact he was coming off. Two straight losses: I thought it would coast and I thought I thought it’d be like two two rounds to one, but I thought chakra would win be a decision. Obviously we don’t. We won’t know because the fights off so we we may know somewhere down the line, but for now we will not know the result of that fight, and then we have the only only two females fighting on the card and two studs. I like them. Both Michelle Waterson, obviously coming off to hair loss to Jana, which there’s no shame in that he just lost a decision to you. Wan na and Carla Esparza is coming off, back-to-back wins, what’s what’s your take? Who do you have and how? This is a tough fight like this is the thing I love about. This card is there’s a lot of tough fights. I mean when you look and you can pair Michelle Waterson and Carla up, like I think, they’ve lost to the top tier of people right like the Oh Anna’s, the Tatiana’s Florence’s, like they have a lot of mutual losses. Now this is your classic. Striker is grappler match. Oh, my gosh, like my heart, wants to tell me Carla’s gon na win just because of her wrestling, but then I wonder, like from a training set like Ovid made such a such an interesting perspective on any of your votes, so I’m actually gon na go Michelle. Waterson karate hottie unanimous decision win. I think she’ll point fight, she’ll, keep distance she’ll almost pull like the female Stephen Thompson get in and get out before. Getting like take him down. If you look at her last three losses like would you look at Michelle Waterson? This is no shot at Carla, but yo wan na tisha Rose like those are probably the top three women right now in that division, but like the fact that when she went out and beat Felicia herring, that really surprised me not that Felicia’s the greatest right. But I thought it was a bad matchup for Michelle and she still went out and won that fight. So with that, I think that kind of gives me the edge. Even though mm mm mm a math doesn’t work yeah, you know and just ones. I have a home phone yeah, I’m one of the few people that still have great weight when I’m gon na call rings. All of like the entire pandemic. Yeah we’re down yeah, no um, I’m coming the same boat. I think she points fights to it to victory. Carla spires is coming off a win streak, though so you never know you never know which Carla is gon na show up, and I think that’s the stuff. Sometimes she looks like a world beater other times she just you know it just seems like she’s off, but Michelle Waterson always comes down to fight, she’s, unbelievable and I think she’s top five and has been for a while. So I think she I think she gets it done, but I think it’s gon na be close one. I think this might be like the coin I coin toss. I think this might be the closest fight of the night, so yeah I have Waterson but a close, close decision, and then, after that we have the Battle of the jujitsu specialists and that, like both of them, seem like they’re, like in their 70s they’ve, been around Forever so Alexia linic and Fabricio Werdum, what’s uh, how do you have that? You know I’m gon na make a old prediction: bold prediction: Fabricio Werdum, retires, alexei Olynyk, first round KO Olynyk retires ver doom springboards after two years off into the chaotic picture. That is the heavyweight division and really complicates things even more. I think Olynyk is getting older right. I am a little salty. He beat my buddy Moe in his last fight, so I’m still a little salty from that one, but I think he’s ground game strong right. Like it’s, it’s probably the best in the heavyweight division him in for do more. Probably the top two I would say for Dee was probably not worried about it. Right, I mean should be worried about breach like he’s a much better level jujitsu fighter than anyone else at Olynyk is fought on top of it for Doom has hands compared to. If you I mean granted like Walt Harris knocked out Olynyk over him, knocked him out. Curtis blades knocked him out right when you look at some of those top echelon, heavy hitters, I think for Doom kind of matches that and he’s got he’s got a chip on his shoulder right he’s been out for two years. People have kind of forgotten about him. Prior to Werdum, leaving granted the volca fight was weird, but he had a pretty good run going. I think we’re doing retires a bold prediction yeah I think I have heard in winning it it’s weird, because neither although they’ve both been you know around for forever. Virgeen’S fought that who’s-who olynyk’s got 150 fights, neither one of them have been submitted. So even though that they’re both fighting like high-level submission fighters, I don’t think either one of them will submit the other any of anyone’s gon na submit. I think it’s gon na be Werdum, we’ll do it, but I don’t think he’s got what it takes it to submit Olynyk and I think they’re grappling is just kind of neutralize it. It’S gon na come down to who’s better on the feet and, like he said, I think for doom is better. That being said, because little layoffs, I think, he’s just gon na – want to get in there and get a win, and I have him winning like a. Could be a comfortable decision, but I have her doom winning it but yeah it’s it’s hard. I mean, I think, that one’s the only like pick, I feel comfortable with who I’m picking I’m not comfortable with the method, because you know he could come out with a flying, kick like. He did with Travis Browne right and like kale and inside five seconds. So you never know what the rooms gon na show up, but I I don’t think I have it be a decision I like it and now my favorite fighter of all time, cowboy Cerrone against one of my favorite fighters of all time, Showtime Pettis. I hate this way. I absolutely hate it. I love both guys. So it’s a high, it’s a hard one for me to watch. How do you have it yeah? This is tough, like I agree, also favorite fighters Cerrone. I give him a lot of kudos for kind of what he’s talked about over the last week about Donald showing up but cowboy, not against McGregor. It’S kind of the key thing in big fights. It’S interesting like these are guys that no matter how many times they win or lose you’re, probably still gon na root for them right and that’s, maybe probably why I don’t like them being matched up together, because it’s already happened and I hate to see one of Them lose again but they’re in the weird spots of the career right. Even if you look at the last 10, 12 14 fights like it’s, not the most impressive record, but they don’t get a lot of like heat for it. The interesting perspective is normally so like, even if you go back and you watch other Donald Cerrone fights the fights that he’s the most successful on is where he pulls this, like buddy-buddy approach with his with who he’s fighting and that person like plays into it right. They like become his friend they’re, like yeah Donald, and you see that from Showtime this week. I think I think Pettis isn’t pulling the like. Hey part. My legs, like [ __, ] you, but I’m here to fight card he’s more like hey yeah. Let’S go have a good time. I think that benefits Cerrone granted throwing to get finished with a body kick last time. I think he protects the body a little bit better. I think his striking is a little bit crisper. I think it’s an all-out war. I think again, it’s 50,000 bucks for each one of them, I’m going with Cerrone yeah, I’m in the same boat. I’Ve been back and forth on this, just because the method in which Tyrone II lost his last three, you know he got dropped against JG. Obviously the Conner loss with in under a minute pretty much and Ferguson battering his face like then I then I realize it’s gay chi, its Ferguson, its Connor, you know so he’s not losing to two mid-tier guys. These last three losses have been two studs top guys in the world world champions former world champions future world champions. So I don’t think there’s any shame in those three losses. So I just kind of you know shrugged those aside and I look back at the fights that he did have prior to that and the way he dismantled Knight Mike Perry. The way he Kayode Alex Hernandez is so favorite of all time by the way yeah. It was crazy fight impetus. You know he lost Nate Diaz and then he lost to Carlos Diego for heah, and I you know it’s not the same level of competition. It’S not the top guys, it’s not world champions, so, just based on their recent performances. I have sort of I’m leaning towards Cerrone, even though he did lose the first, the first fight, but I think it’s gon na be like if any of them gets dropped. They’Re just gon na laugh it off and let the other guy back up. I think they’re just there to have fun and put on a show, so I don’t think either one of them finishes it. I just think it’s gon na be like cowboy via decision, but just as I’m having fun, which is why I love cowboy that’s. Why they’re doing that so yeah, I don’t. I don’t see either one of them finishing the other, but I have cowboy via decision yeah. I agree man, I think the one interesting perspective that I find is like it feels like Cerrone always gets the name right like he always gets the fighter with the name where I feel like Pettis has been put aground against, like some of these, like up-and-coming killers, Which has really hurt his perception a little bit, so I’m interested to see how it plays out yeah yeah, I mean a cowboy had that with with Alex Hernandez, but outside of that it’s all been. I mean an en si, but outside of that, it’s all been like top top level. Guys he’s never fought some guy outside of top 15 outside of when he had that. Like 15 fight one city we’re here to fight anybody that you know would show up. I also love his mentality of saying I’ll fight all three times this week, not gon na happen, but if anyone’s gon na do it it’s cowboy. So also, did you see Gilbert burn, saying: he’d fight your AIA hall, a hundred percent, the Gilbert burn, I’m telling you right now. There are two people that have taken over the MMA world, the social media world, and if you disagree that it’s Gilbert burns and Deron till I don’t know where you’ve been living lately, but those guys are on fire lately, yeah Darren till is hilarious. I have him ranked, I think he just passed. Derrick Lewis is number one funniest guys on on social media. Derrick toe um Derrick Lewis is a close second, but I have Darren till just passing them and Gilbert burns. Saying he’d fight anybody, it’s I love it. I love it, it’s like the new cowboy, but it’s fun and it’s fun. I only afford it Gilbert burns that every event, no matter what event what country I’ve been in he’s, always there I’m like dude. How do you afford this you’re? Always here just in case yeah, it’s crazy, oh yeah. I think he’s cornering this weekend and he’s cornering tonight and which is, which is why I don’t know who’s cornering, but obviously he’s not gon na get the fight. The weigh-ins already happened, and you know, but I love it. I love that it’s, you might be a great fight. Your Hall and GUI burns be really exciting for all right, jörgen the cosgrove Greg Greg Hardy. I think this is probably the you know. I think a lot of people most people, don’t know who you’re in the Castro is, but it’s it’s a lot closer than I think a lot of people think like people like he’s, not being Greg, Hardy’s and being fed a punching bag. This time it’s gon na be fun yeah I mean man, the organ used to be managed by the same guy that my buddy mo a so I got a little inside info he’s been pushing hard for this Greg Hardy fight man. He wants it and I don’t doubt his skills like right, like the Justin Tafel win, is a big win right, especially cuz. You finish him in the first knocked him out. I will say, though, like Greg Hardy granted, like his record, won’t show it right. He’S 5. 2 & 1, you got the weird thing that happened with Ben with the inhaler, but he fought Volkov in his last fight right in Russia, in Russia in Russia, and I think it was on short notice. If I don’t mistake it, I think it wasn’t short notice and I’m not saying that he did anything dominant, but he went out there and got his arm broken and still like weathered the storm for two more rounds and so Greg Carr, decent athletic freak. I think he’s steamrolls him. I know that a lot of people may disagree. Cuz, that’s how it looks on paper, but I think that he just overpowers him for the win and I think that actually I’m gon na go decision because I’m interested to see how kind of their conditioning is so I’m gon na go decision as it kind of Gets a little sloppy at the end as I get both get tired yeah. So I have. I have Greg Hardy decision. I was originally going to Castro decision just because I felt like Greg Carr he’s gon na gas, so I have Greg Hardy coming on strong early. I don’t think he finishes DeCastro, but I think the one thing that kind of did that fight with Volkov is the thing that really shows me what type of guy he is he’s he’s durable, he’s not going to get put away and de Castro probably isn’t gon Na get put away, he’s undefeated and I don’t think Greg Hardy will do it. I had we haven’t seen enough of de Castro to really know I guess, but I don’t think Greg Hardy finishes him. I think that the thing that I’ve been leaning towards is a three-round fight Greg Hardy is gon na win the first. I think the COS role when the third and I think the second is gon na – be up for grabs and I think it’s gon na come down to how quickly Greg Hardy gases, but the fight is in Florida, Greg Hardy trains out of Florida. So there’s no travel forum, so I think that’s gon na work in his favor and I think he’s gon na get gas later on in the second round. But I think there was a few minutes I think are gon na, be the the deciding factor he’s gon na gas, I’m not sure just uh. I just think it’s gon na be later on in round two, and I think those few minutes that fighting in Florida will give them they’re gon na be the deciding factor in the fight, and now you know, Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Gator. Then it’s the number one fight. I’M looking forward to you as crazy, it sounds. I know people are like super excited for co-main event and main event. This is the number one fight I want to see. I’M a hundred percent New England cartel Kelvin cater huge fan always have been love. The relationship that him and Rob font have like – I think this is the fourth or fifth time that this has had to be rescheduled due to events. On the flip side, though, you got Jeremy Stephens, who is no different than some of the other names. We’Ve talked about right guy, whose record, maybe isn’t the prettiest, but this guy bites down on his mouthpiece puts on a phenomenal fight every time. I think that these two are competing with for fight of the night as well, but I think Calvin Cain gets the decision win. If you look at his last fight against the beat, I think the beat definitely started quick but tailor tapered off and Calvin was getting so crisp with his boxing that last part of the second round into the third round. I think Calvin wins, I think, he’s on a different level right now, yeah I have so Jeremy Stephens. Is this weird story? I guess because he he does have the most losses in the UFC, but he also has a crap ton of fights he’s only fight he’s. Only fight the only fights killers he’s you’re, not feeding him. Anybody he’s on, but three fight losing streak right now. I think, but Tom listen to the names. Listen, the names he’s lost you yeah, here’s a beat Aldo Edgar Holloway Charles Oliveira, Cub Swanson and like Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, like he’s not losing to you, know the no, but nobody’s he’s losing the top guys. My question is what Jeremy Stephens is gon na show up the one that starts Josh Emmet, you know, or you know, or the one that’s gon na lose to the close fight to does a beat, and I think if it goes to decision, I think cater gets It done, I don’t think a tour finishes. Stephens. I think if it goes, decisions decision caters, got it if someone’s getting knocked out a communicator. But the interesting thing is: Jeremy Stephens missed weight, and I’m stuck on that because I think you know he missed it by four and a half pounds. So I’ve been back and forth on that because if he missed it because of him just being like, I don’t think I’m gon na make it and just like coasting and intentionally not missing it to give himself a little bit of a boost. I think he’s got an advantage, but if the reason he missed it is because something went wrong. I think Katers got it. So I think that’s gon na be a huge factor and I don’t know what the cause of the the missed weight is. I didn’t know that man yeah he missed by four and a half pounds which sucks it sucks for cater, which is kind of why I wanted them all out. Like yeah yeah. I still look at the stat, but I think that I think the status and I’ll double check this, but I think the 83 % of the time if a fighter Mason Nathan misses wait. The fighter who missed wait, wins yeah yeah. So because it’s four and a half pounds, it’s not a pound, it’s not two pounds like that’s a significant advantage. You know not having to cut four and a half pounds. It’S like next for two days of just not having to drain yourself. I’M not really sure how weight cutting works, so I’m assuming it’s like, but I’m just you know it goes a long way, especially for his recovery before the fight. So I think that’s gon na play a huge factor and I think Jeremy Stevens might have the advantage. Assuming it’s not something like you know, he got a bug or he’s sick before the fight or if it’s just you know, and having a hard time making the cut. I think it’s him. That’S gon na pull it off via like knockout or TKO, or something, but if it’s, if it’s due to like an illness, then I’m leaning cater, but I guess he’ll he’s the only one that really knows what what exactly was the cause of the missed wait. I can’t believe I didn’t know that man I think I was like wow, that caught me off guard a little bit. Does he see what my perspective a little bit he’s the only one that missed wait. Everyone else missed that everyone else made weight, but he he missed it by four and a half pounds which is significant. So do you have any like kelp, even more like hey, he doesn’t care, he’s still gon na fight him. For now I was kind of like: let’s go, I’m surprised he took it like you know in its it’s risky enough, as is, but given everything that’s going on, it makes it even even riskier. So I’m surprised he took the fight, but it makes me route form, but at the same time I, like Jeremy, I tend to root for guys who are losing streaks just because I want them to bounce back, especially when I’m like neutral, like I like them, both So yeah I don’t know, I don’t know, but I think I think Stephens will do it without knowing what exactly was the cause of it yeah, if I have to, if I have to do anything, Steve and TKO Stephens TKO, I’m set on it, not using it All right and now the fireworks that is Frances and Ghani and you’re Zeno Rosen strike man. I don’t even care what happens? I’M just excited something’s gon na happen. There’S no way. This goes to a decision I like granted. I said that before Derek Lewis and gone and fought – and that was probably well up until Romero – is he that was probably the most boring fight of all time itself because they got two extra rounds. I think that Romero, and is he changed that? But I think Frances man like okay, if you eliminate the Derrick Lewis loss right, that was just a weird fight. Yeah he’s only lost to steepen yeah and, if you think about that, like he didn’t have a ton of cage time going into a five-round fight with steep a and so, if you think about it, all of the fights previous, I think five out of his six Fights were finished in the first round prior to the Steep, a fight, the other one got finished in the second round. So I kind of take the steep, a fight with a grain of salt. You have a champion. That’S used to five round fights the conditioning how to approach the fight versus a punch-out artist right and I think igano has since grown completely. His arms are so long. His boxing is so good. I think George Dino could turn the lights off at any minute. Big E boy is nothing to mess with, but I think if you go back to the ring fight, Rheem was picking him apart and I thought ream was playing a very passive Reem fight. I don’t know what happened to his body. Kicks Rheem used to be the king of body kicks and knees, and it felt like he kind of got away from that and played the distance game and then got caught right at the end in Ghana wins in dramatic fashion. He still at the standstill, because the steep ADC situation, which puts a really weird pressure on the UFC as soon as Francis wins this fight. I think yeah and Francis wins this. I think the only fight you can do other than that is Volkov. Like he’s fought, everybody else like he’s, eliminated the entire division and he hasn’t even won a title yet like it’s crazy over doom over doom yeah, if he wins, if he wins, but I’ve been I’ve been back and forth in this, like I said thinking, Ghana wins I’Ve just been back and forth on the method everyone’s like knockout knockout, not yet, but I keep going back to the fight where he ripped the guy’s arm off. Remember when he like he Adam yeah, he had his back against the cage and he just threw the guy to the ground and gripped his arm and because you’re Zeno Rosen strike is like a high he’s. A kickboxer high-level striker. I’Ve been leaning towards like in gone and just being like, I’m gon na, take it down, but is this like the one fight where I’m like? I want to just be bold and say something outrageous and say it’s gon na be in Ghana, submission. Realistically I don’t. I don’t think it’s gon na happen, but if they could be fun if it went to the ground, I’ve been gone and managed to do something crazy. So I was gon na say in Ghana, UVA like just overpowering, Kimora or something, but I think in Ghana. Knockout is probably the wise, the wise choice there, but yeah and Ghana wrote that means said: Rosen strike is monster, but because he was outclassed by Overeem for what wasn’t 14 minutes and 59 seconds. I uh I’m leaning towards and got it yeah. I think so. I mean, and I’m not doubting biggy boy could do it. Don’T get me wrong because with the heavyweight division it just takes one punch, I don’t care who you are. How good you are you get clipped it’s over man kind of Salvia he’s built like the Hulk like it’s his bill makes no sense, know that genetics yeah. That’S that’s crazy man! All right! Now the fun fights the title fights so we’re gon na 200 pounds off in Ghana, man, Roizen strike and 135 pounds and Henry cejudo and Dominick Cruz. First off. I guess thoughts on Dominick Cruz, take like having a chance to fight for a belt after three and a half years, man – I’m not mad about it, but like a lot of people, get upset about these things and I’m really not mad about it. I think he’s earned it. I think when you’re 22 and two you’ve only lost once in the UFC, you commentate fights you’re, always there like he has stayed relevant, even though he hasn’t actually been in the Octagon. If that makes sense, I think if you look at a four year, well three and a half year absence – and maybe you haven’t been this relevance, dominant, there’s, no chance! You get this fight right. I think it also plays into the fact that it kind of shows you that, like like Henry’s doing a good thing with his little like Triple C act, nobody likes him right like I could be wrong, but nobody likes him, and I think that UFC is like To be boring like like, we get it, it’s cool gimmick, but I think that they’re like at this weird standstill of Sahu toe, is the best in that division. And how do you make it an interesting fight when he doesn’t really like draw attendance three years? The three and a half years of ring rust man, even though Dominic will tell you it doesn’t exist like it’s it’s hard for me to argue against the huto, and I don’t like to play into this too much. But if you look at the of the weigh-ins yesterday and you look at Dominic, it doesn’t look very healthy and I don’t like to speculate in someone else’s health but like he looked like he was sucked out drawn out to make this way cut and Sehun. Oh looks like he was ready to tear somebody’s head off, oh, and so it’s of them yeah right. It’S an interesting fight. I think my gosh either saludos gon na catch Dominic or Dominic. It’S just gon na out class him. That’S my two ways that I’ve been feeling back and forth. I would love to see. Dominic takes the kudos head off and reclaim the title, but I’m going to say judo TKO third round I have so the you know I wanted. I wanted the Aldo fight. I don’t think you know, I think yond. Is it jaan and sterling deserve it sterling made it clear. He doesn’t want to fight through the pandemic and yon just recently won against Faber ooh. I don’t think that fight warrants you a title shot. So you you, you go for the next biggest name and that right now is Cruz. So as much as I don’t like the fact that he’s getting a title shot after three and a half years, if anybody’s gon na fight for the title, if it’s not, although it has to be Cruz just given the way everything else is played out. So as much as I don’t like it, I’d much rather be sterling and yan, but since those options aren’t available here just make sense. As for the fight itself, I have Cruz winning via decision and, I think, yeah. Well, I want Cruz to win. I don’t I don’t like sudo very much as I don’t like the gimmick. I liked him before I liked him when he you know was himself. I liked him on the Ultimate Fighter. You know his beef with Benavidez was at least a little bit. It was real. It wasn’t fake or anything like that, I’m not a fan of the the punting pillows with people’s faces on it. I don’t like that. I get it. A lot of people want to watch him lose. So it’s good for that fact. You’Re. You know you’re promoting, but I want Dominic to win and Dominic’s never been finished even against Cody and I think Cody’s got way more knockout power than Sehun. Oh, he took a lot of damage in a fight. You got dropped several times, but I don’t, but he wasn’t gon na he he didn’t lose so he didn’t get finished. So, for that reason I think Cruz is gon na decision them and he’s gon na win not comfortably, but I think it’s gon na be a close fight for 25 minutes and then Eileen. I look at so kudos fight against Maryse and he was outclassed and so Maurice got gassed and Cruz doesn’t gas. So even with three and a half years off, I don’t think he gases in the fight. So I just think it’s gon na be like he’s gon na keep him at range. It’S gon na be a comfortable comfortable fight. Both of them are gon na Lennon shots, but I think Cruz is gon. Na win three rounds, the two: it’s not going to be the most entertaining fight of the night. I don’t think it’s gon na be the closest Friday night. I just think it’s gon na be like comfortable Cruz wind, but who knows who knows? Man like? I didn’t think he was gon na knock out TJ Dillashaw either. So I never know you never know so, but yeah I have Cruz decision. I hope I hope that Dominic was just like hey it’s a weight cut for the first time like I hope it’s not like a bad way cut that like happen with TJ and almost said now, you’ve compromised your chin because of it. That’S what I don’t know. I hope it is a good fight, but I don’t like the thing about Dominic is he’s had options that return and he just never did, and I think he knew this was a good time like. I don’t think he would would take the fight if he wasn’t ready, because he’s that off he’s been he’s had long layoffs and he just didn’t return, though he did return for morale. He didn’t return like there were several times where he could return. Him fought for a title and didn’t because he wasn’t ready, so I think Cruz is smart and I don’t think he would take this fight if he wasn’t physically a hundred percent, but I did. I did see what you mean, though, or he didn’t look this typical self at the weigh-ins, but I don’t think I think we have to judge them based on physics on fight night, and I think the way he looks tonight will be the you know. If he comes in looking like a skeleton like TJ Dillashaw did against sudo, then I think we’ll be like before the fight even starts really. This is over, but I think tonight’s gon na be where you can kind of see it yeah. We think it’s interesting. A cowboy on weigh-ins looks terrible, especially at 155, but then he shows up at fight night and he looks fine. So I think you know it all depends on on how he looks tonight and same with you. Wan na you wan na looks terrible when she weighs in every time, so I mean it’s just gon na be the way he looks tonight I think, is gon na, be the better better way to kind of predict the fight and now the dying to watch drum Roll Tony Ferguson, Jessamyn Gaetti I’ve been back and forth on this over and over and over again, but I’m trusting my gut trusting my gut yeah man. I agree. I think that I will tell you self-admittedly if there’s one fighter, that I’ve gone back in the last month and a half and watch more fights than anyone else. It’S Tony Ferguson, one, I think he’s got a certain perception and I think there were some moments that I forgot about right, like looking at some of these fights, and I would have told you I forget what I said last time we talked we talked about, it Was khabib Tony and I was like he’s just not gon na be khabib. I wouldn’t change on that, but I did. I did think to myself when gates you were play, so it was like ooh Tony Cragg in this fight, especially after the weigh-in. I thought that that type of discipline was like the focus that it takes to still make weight, even though you don’t have to make weight, is ridiculous right, you’re, just on a different level mentally, but through going back and watching these fights. Cody is not the smartest fighter and neither is Justin, which I think makes me want this fight even more, but there are times that Tony gets caught and I think the power that he has had to deal with looking at the list of fighters that he’s fought Compared to the power that just engage, he has fought when you look at his two bosses, I think gage he catches him. I think he actually puts him out, which is crazy to say, because I think that Tony’s freak, like type of conditioning, allows him to have such a crazy chin, but I think the double weight cut. He kind of looked like a weird bat, oh ma, so like his side’s yesterday, I don’t know like I’m interested to see if that impacts his chin, but I’m calling just engage. He knockout. I don’t know what round, but gage gets another bonus now creates this weird standstill with khabib and him because they’re both under the same manager. I don’t know what you do there, I’m sure gating with this title fight, but I’m calling Justin gay Chi, but I could definitely see Tony pulling off some weird submission yeah. So I’ve been so back and forth on this fight. I don’t I don’t see like I don’t think Tony he’s gon na TKO Gaetti. I think he has a chance to submit him. I don’t think he will, but I think he could and even like you look at the all of Tony Ferguson’s last fights he gets rocked. He gets rocky and slander. He is rocking his Pettis. He hasn’t dominated anybody right. They all looked terrible afterwards because he’s elbowed them in the face thousands of times, but he gets out low to the face. He gets punched in the face he gets kicked. He gets and Katy has way more power than Lando. He is way more power than Pettis Gaetti, never got knocked out against Eddie Alvarez and had it aeronaut Pettis poor yeah. He she lost, but mainly it was because the referee was tired of him being like beat up. So I think, if Ferguson wind, it’s going to be doctor stoppage or decision, I think the doctors gon na be like okay at all. I can’t see like just engage. He will have some massive gash over his forehead, but I don’t think he’s gon na be TKO’d or kayoed or decision. I think if, if he can manage the early storm of just engag two and a half rounds, if you can weather it, Ferguson may be able to coast to a decision. I think just engage. These wrestling is strong enough to keep it on the feet. I don’t think so. I don’t think a submission will really come into play, but I think I have a Qi second round TKO or knockout, but I don’t even oh yeah so hard to predict this fight because, honestly, I’m just tired of telling really talking about. I just want to watch it like I’m at the point where it’s like. Okay, I don’t like I wanted AG to win cuz. I love Katy and Ferguson, for whatever reason I just I don’t I don’t want to fight could be. I love khabib and I don’t want to see it. I don’t want to see it because I think I think he could be khabib and I don’t want that. So I’m rooting for gage II. The only thing I hope doesn’t happen is, I hope this isn’t. A repeat of UFC 244 was telling me wrong. I think that maybe is is I needed to be stopped right yeah, but I hope that you don’t have this huge, exciting fight that gets stopped by a cut when Gaetti still wants to fight Tony still wants to fight, but because of some type of injury and Everyone being precautious now, all of a sudden, we end the fight and we’re still left with this, while Gaetti could have kept fighting the same way as people thought about Nate with Jorge, like, I hope we don’t end up in that type of a weird situation. I hope that we get what we expect out of this fight yeah. That being said, I don’t see it like. I don’t see it going to decision like I mean if it goes a decision, Ferguson wins, but I don’t see it getting there. I think either doctor stops it or gate. She puts him out so Ferguson, I’m just gon na go with it. Forget it forget some wins. It’S doctor stoppage kg wins it’s TKO. I have Goethe TKO. Second round. That’S my decision, I’m sticking with it. I mean, I think, if it does come down to wrestling like even if you watch a Kevin leaf, I, like Kevin Lee, has a open, stab staph infection on his chest like so, you could tell that his conditioning gets weathered, but he took Tony down so easy During that fight, yeah and Tony didn’t really know what to do for a long period of time during that, until all of a sudden, Kevin Lee started getting really tired. So like that kind of swayed me a little bit to you watching some previous fights yeah, I don’t – I don’t see gage even making the attempt because he’s never done it, but if, for whatever reason he ever had to, I don’t, I don’t think he he could Take it for Anna Ferguson down at ease, I think – and I don’t think Ferguson I mean Ferguson’s great off his back, but I think gage he would just hold them there long enough to recover and then stand back up like I don’t see gay Chi entertaining the Ground game like Kevin Lee, did so yeah. It’S it’s violent. It’S a fun card. Man like top to bottom. I think for the most part and for the thing for the most part we have same kicks like I have. I have Cruz. You have pseudo Bob Stevens. You have cater, but I think everybody else. This is the same. I think we have the same fix for everybody else, so we’re only bad, usually usually when I they’re aligned with someone, then they’re, not very good. Yeah I’ve been back and forth with a lot of them, like my predictions that I submitted to bloody canvas are very there’s slightly different knees like I had I had cater, I didn’t have Stevens like it. I just kind of I’ve been flopping. I submitted that was on Tuesday, so my my picks have changed a bit since so man, but it’s a fun fight. I can’t wait for tonight. Got my man ready, I’m ready to go so here’s a good question ending on this, so Dana White’s doing the whole him and Halle Berry. Yes, guest winner gets to pick a fight of their choice. You get to match me your own UFC fight, so say you were to win. What is the fight you make Jones steeper probably like if I can make any fight like realistically they’re, not gon na, be like oh yeah, you can match up Conor McGregor with anybody. They’Re gon na be like you can match a Jim Miller or you know someone someone that’s outside the top 15 they’re, not letting you they’re not entertaining the thought of you matching up Conor McGregor. But theoretically, if I could match up anybody man, I don’t know. I don’t know, but probably something probably Jones and Jones and Brock, maybe if I could, if, if for whatever reason that fight could happen, I’d love to see Jones and Brock, if not Jones Brock like Jones and steep a probably Jones stiva, what whatever yeah I kind Of took it with the same way right, they’re, not gon na give you like the ability to pick some crazy fight that everyone’s, like, oh my god. So I have a couple and I think, they’re all realistic matchups – that I would like to see again eventually so going through and watching the Edson Barboza Tony Ferguson fight I’d love to see that again thinking about, I would even say, yo well and Kevin gasps, ylim And now it’s the fight that they will give because the UFC wants to have it number one fight Jorge versus Kobe yeah about that fight yeah. But I think that’s why respites they give you got to kind of pick middle tier, because that’s what they’re gon na give you flexibility with. I think yeah yeah, they wouldn’t let you they wouldn’t even entertain the thought of you matching up someone who’s, even ranked like they may. Let you like, I was thinking like maybe Matt Brown or Jim Miller, or some some biggish name, but not quite top 15, but I’d love to see Matt Brent, like Browns fighting Miguel Baeza, but I’d love to see. Matt Brown versus even like Mike Perry or Matt Brown Nico price, like something like that, I think, would be a lot of fun for a mid to your fight. I love Matt Brown, so so Matt Brown, if I admit to your fight you’d, be like Matt Brown versus Nico price or Mike Perry loved it. Alright man! Well, I can’t wait for tonight. You got got my uh. I got proper 12. I got Jack Daniels. I got everything ready to go. Do you drink during the fight, so you just sit down and enjoy them man. I will tell you I’m an interesting person when it comes to fights. I watch them by myself, yeah. I did that too. Don’T drink it all, because I want to be able to know like remember in the moment. The only time I ever drink during fights is when I go to them what I watched from the first card, even if it wasn’t stacked like it is today we have Ryan span and happy on the first card of the night. I usually try and watch from the beginning to end my game plan is. I actually am watching the fight to someone so my buddy, Maurice Greene in the UFC I’ve been watching his kid at uh. It was his fiance’s birthday so that kind of gave them the hall pass to come over and watch fights and we haven’t hung out since quarantine began. So it’ll be the two of us watching fights and I’m really intrigued because you got a guy that it’s kind of had some ups and downs in the heavyweight division, with three heavyweight fights going on. Not only does it give us a chance to kind of watch the fights but kind of spectate to see what options might present themselves in the future yeah. It’S kind of cool cuz he’s gon na watch, a guy that he fought he’s gon na he’s, gon na watch, Olynyk fight and I think the loser of the the Hardy DeCastro fight would be a good matchup for him. You know he lost it, a guy, the top 50. He was just in top 15 just a few months ago, so even like, if de Castro were, if Hardy losses, I have a great fight for sure yeah a lot of fun, but man all the best and I enjoy the fights man. I I’m gon na sitting down we’re doing a fight companion with a with a few of my buddies, so I usually do watch them by myself, but first one back in a while. So I was like I got. I got at least write this over since no one’s allowed over we’re just gon na I’ve got my setup. I got two laptops. I got a monitor, I got TV, so that’s you can see. The background is different. I shifted from the ship to ten feet from the kitchen into the living room, so I could watch the play so all the best men and uh yeah we’ll have to uh we’ll have to do something with Maurice soon I’d love to have him on and talk To him oh yeah, man! Well, hey! I appreciate it. Thank you for the time. Good luck on your picks. Well, I got more Gators taking it.

Sergio Pineiro

Sergio Pineiro is the Founder of FighterPath.com and host of the Quarantinecast podcast. Based in Canada he is both a sports journalist and MMA enthusiast. He practices the sport but has a passion for the individual stories of training, fighting and living the fighting lifestyle.

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